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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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