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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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