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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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