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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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