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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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