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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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