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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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