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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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