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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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