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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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