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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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