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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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