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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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