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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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