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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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