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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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