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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 February 15
Q2' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $63.45; $ 1.85 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month, week on week and day on day.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 16 February 15
COAL MINING SLUMP A BLESSING IN DISGUISE - THE JAKARTA POST
The growth of the coal-mining industry, which has diminished in the last two years, is expected to slump even further this year following weakening ...
Monday, 16 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.31 per MT (+2.59%) week over week and US$ 4.35 (+9.13%) month on ...
Monday, 16 February 15
Q2' 15 - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 5.22% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 2.88 (+5.22%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.08 (+1.90% ...
Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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