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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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