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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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