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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 February 15
PANAMAX: NOPAC AND AUSSIE ROUNDS ARE DONE IN LOW/MID $ 4000; TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA CLOSER TO THE $5000 MARK - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has not seen any firming rates in front of the Chinese New Year and still suffering on low activity in both hemi ...
Wednesday, 18 February 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO RECOVER IN LATE 2015 - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Strong trade growth, moderating fleet development and deployment of new fuel efficient vessels are expected to lead to a recovery in dry bulk shipp ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
WHO PAYS THE SUEZ CANAL FEES? - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This was an appeal from an arbitration award on a point of construction in relation to the wording of an addendum to a ch ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
BUOYANT WAVES IN RECENT YEARS: GLOBAL SHIP INVESTMENT SINCE THE CRASH - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anxiety about fleet expansion is a recurring feature of world shipping markets. Within the global maritime community, worries about the vast amount ...
Tuesday, 17 February 15
FOB SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP 8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 3.58 (+8.00%) month o ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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