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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 ROSE 3.39% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.90 (+3.39%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.08 ...
Monday, 23 February 15
Q2' API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $1 HIGHER THAN Q3
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.12 per MT (+6.44%) month over month and fall US$ 0.43 (-0.83%) w ...
Sunday, 22 February 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX LOST ALMOST 3.2% OR 17 POINTS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, one of the economic indicators that monitors the health of the world's economy by tracking the price of shi ...
Friday, 20 February 15
GOVT SET TO INCREASE COAL OUTPUT TARGET THIS YEAR - JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is planning to increase its coal output target this year as the government seeks to offset the ongoing de ...
Friday, 20 February 15
U.S. PRODUCED AROUND 19.2 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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