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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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