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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 March 15
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS TRENDING UP
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to see gains this week and all the indices were rose except for Cape index. The BDI was increased 4.62 p ...
Friday, 06 March 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX: IS THIS POWERFUL INDICATOR SIGNALING A GLOBAL RECESSION? - STREET AUTHORITY
Although memories of the Great Recession linger, a case can be made that better days lie ahead.
That’s because central banks around the ...
Friday, 06 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 3.5% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
PANAMAX : THE ATLANTIC ROUND IS NOW PAYING AROUND US$ 5K PER DAY
COALspot.com: Handy - The activity in the handy/supra segment is back. “ We see more fresh cargo in the market for 2nd half March dates ...
Thursday, 05 March 15
INDIA WILL BE THE LARGEST DRIVER OF GLOBAL SEABORNE COKING COAL DEMAND GROWTH IN 2015 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global demand growth will remain weak because of China’s negative demand growth.
COALspot.com: At Coaltrans India, Wood Mackenzie says I ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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