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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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