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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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