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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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