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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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