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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK SOAR 7.69% IN MARCH....!!!
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised up Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 67.76 per MT in March ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
AVERAGE RATE FOR CAPES MOVED TO BELOW $ 4K/DAY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The even heavier losses noted in the Capesize segment last week, denied the Dry Bulk market a third weekly positive, while the smalle ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
PARKING THE CAPES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It is no secret that recent times have been anything but kind towards shipping, and no sector has suffered more lately than the dry bulk one. While ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
CHINA-OWNED SHIPS: A RAPID RISE TO BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST FLEETS - RICHARD SCOTT
Ships operated by owners based in China have become increasingly prominent on the world’s sea routes. China-owned container ships, bulk carri ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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