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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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