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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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