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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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