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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 March 15
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE: GROWTH +5% - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Sunday, 22 March 15
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO RISE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this week as all the segments increased after many weeks of weak trend.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ...
Friday, 20 March 15
HARD COAL MARKET 2014: DESPITE THE ENERGY TURNAROUND, HARD COAL IMPORTS TO GERMANY RISE BY MORE THAN 6% (PART 1)
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Friday, 20 March 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 5.9% INCREASE WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 19 March 15
HANDY: INDO COAL CARGOS DESTINED FOR INDIA BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $ 7-8K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Handy and Supra market has had a week with mixed signals. Although we see more activity in both hemispheres the rates are only up about ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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