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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT: TANKER CHARTERING - KATERINA RESTIS
The 1st of January 2015, as broadly reported, denoted the beginning date of new and progressive emission regulations for vessels operating within t ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA SET TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE WORLD'S LARGEST COAL EXPORTER - COAL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Greg Evans, Executive Director - Coal, Minerals Council of Australia
Media Release: The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly published by the ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
AUSTRALIA UPSTREAM ENERGY FIRMS FACE RISING OIL PRICE EXPOSURE - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the Australian oil and gas companies involved in exploration and production face higher exposure to oil price-linked revenues, w ...
Wednesday, 25 March 15
2014 : UK COAL IMPORTS DECLINED 17%; GERMANY COAL IMPORTS UP 6%
Hard Coal Market 2014: Despite The Energy Turnaround, Hard Coal Imports To Germany Rise By More Than 6%, Although Hard Coal-Fired Power Generation ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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