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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 March 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION REQUIRES LETTER OF CREDIT FOR EXPORT OF PRODUCTS FROM NATURAL RESOURCES
The Minister of Trade issued Ministerial Regulation No. 04/M-DAG/PER/1/2015 (“Regulation No. 4/2015”) on 5 January 2015. Regulati ...
Friday, 27 March 15
WEEKLY U.S COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.7% W-W; 7.9% Y-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT FOR THE FIRST 2 MONTHS DECLINED BY 1.2 % Y-O-Y; PANAMAX AUSSIE/CHINA ROUNDS BEING FIXED IN THE $4 -5K RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates en ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZE SEGMENT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
To see green across the board is a rare occurrence in the Dry Bulk market nowadays and while the upside in which last week closed off is not of the ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
KYUSHU ELECTRIC POWER OF JAPAN HAS JOINED GLOBALCOAL ONLINE COAL TRADING PLATFORM
globalCOAL® announced today that Kyushu Electric Power, one of Japan’s largest utility companies, has joined its online coal trading plat ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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