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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 30 March 15
Q3' 15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: DECLINED 8.7% M-M; 12.77% Y-TO-D
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.00 (-8.70%) per MT month over month and US$ 1.33 (-2 ...
Monday, 30 March 15
Q2' FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.47% HIGHER THAN Q4' CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.42 per MT (-10.43%) month over month and US$ 1.60 (-3.32%) w ...
Sunday, 29 March 15
INDO - INDIA: SUPRAMAX & PANAMAX FREIGHT MARKET STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market was almost stable as all segments slightly up except Panamax sector.
The BDI was up by just 0.85% week over w ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
IS NORTHERN EUROPE THE NEW MINING ELDORADO?
The Europe Mining 2015 Summit, organised by Global Summits organizer IRN on 17-18 June in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, will gather senior level repr ...
Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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