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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 April 15
SUPRAMAX & HANDY: RATES HELD STEADY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
“Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market closed off on the green last week, sentiment didn't improve by any means, not only because of ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET UPDATE - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that we are still witnessing a very challenging and at the same time very uncertain market, both with respect to dry chartering a ...
Wednesday, 01 April 15
Q4' 15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.15 W/E 27 MARCH 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 drops month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap declined US$ 1.54 (3.24%) mo ...
Tuesday, 31 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month but increased week on week.
The Q2 swap has ...
Monday, 30 March 15
WORST IS OVER FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, BUT THE PAIN WILL REMAIN FOR YEARS TO COME, SAYS BIMCO CHIEF ANALYST - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current demise of the dry bulk market isn’t one to go away anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that it can’t improve, with all sh ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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