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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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