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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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