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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
Sunday, 05 April 15
FREIGHT RATES UNDER PRESSURE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Indices fell on all segments and the market seemed to soften this week.
The BDI was almost lost 1.34% week over week and clo ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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