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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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