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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 April 15
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS RISE BY 33 PC TO 240 MT IN FY'15 - PTI
India’s coal imports in the just concluded FY 2015 increased by 33 per cent to about 240 million tonnes.
“Coal import have gone up ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
CAPESIZE: THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SIDE ARE NOW SUFFERING HEAVILY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
It seems to be some standoff between owners and charterers in both hemispheres this week. Owners are raising their rates while charterers a ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.67 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month.
The Q2 swap has declined US$ 1.90 (3.17%) m ...
Wednesday, 15 April 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.63 MMT OF COAL IN MARCH; UP 4.41% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.227 billi ...
Tuesday, 14 April 15
COAL OUTPUT FALLS AS PRICES CONTINUE TO LAG - JP
Coal output dropped by 21 percent in the first three months of the year as low prices for the commodity forced mining companies to reduce activitie ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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