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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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