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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with ove ...
Friday, 24 April 15
GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION OUTSIDE OF CHINA CONTINUES TO FARE VERY POORLY - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Data released this week showed that global crude steel production totaled approximately 138.05 million tons in March.
Wha ...
Friday, 24 April 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FALLS 5.7% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.0 million short ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
PANAMAX : ATLANTIC HOLDING ON TO THE GAINS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK; PACIFIC BUSINESS SLID QUIETLY
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to close off the week on a positive note last Friday, while as opposed to what we have been used to, it w ...
Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD c ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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