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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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