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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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