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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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