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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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