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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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