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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
BUKIT ASAM'S AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE WAS UNDER PRESSURE DURING Q1
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s state owned coal producer saw their profits fall in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
IRON ORE PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON LOW DEMAND, HIGH OUTPUT - FITCH
Iron ore prices will stay low for several years due to increasing supply, weak demand growth in China and the slower-than-expected closure of high- ...
Tuesday, 19 May 15
KOMIPO IS SEEKING TOTAL 2.34 MMT OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR 2015 - 2017
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 2.34 million Metric Tons (MT) of HCV ...
Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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