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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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