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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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