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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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